In the short term, tin prices are constrained by macro risk-averse sentiment, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to be in the doldrums [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 20, 2025

In the morning session today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) continued the weak trend from the night session, opening at 262,850 yuan/mt, 880 yuan lower than the previous day's close. By the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract was temporarily trading around 261,180 yuan/mt, with an intraday decline of approximately 0.97%. Trading volume was slightly lower compared to the previous day, and market sentiment remained cautious.

​​Intensified Macro Pressures​​: The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its June policy meeting, but the dot plot signaled a hawkish stance with only two interest rate cuts projected for 2025. The US dollar index fluctuated at high levels, suppressing risk assets. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East further fueled risk-averse sentiment, prompting capital inflows into the US dollar and US Treasuries, putting pressure on the metal market.

​​Technical Observations​​: The most-traded SHFE tin contract broke below the key support level of 260,000 yuan/mt, with short-term moving averages showing a bearish alignment and the MACD indicator's green bars expanding. Support below should be monitored at the 260,000 yuan/mt round number.

Overnight, LME tin closed at $32,205/mt, up 0.33%. Amid the US Fed's hawkish stance and Middle East tensions, the US dollar index and commodity prices diverged, with LME tin likely to fluctuate rangebound within the 31,700-32,700 $/mt range in the short term.

​​In the short term, tin prices are constrained by macro risk-averse sentiment and weak supply and demand fundamentals. The most-traded SHFE tin contract may continue to trade in the doldrums, with support below monitored at 260,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, support at the psychological level of $30,000/mt should be closely watched. In the medium term, two key variables warrant caution: